Monday, September 8, 2008
Hit or Miss?
It's still way to early to determine where Ike will go, but for now they've got it coming to us.
Jeff Masters, at Weather Underground, predicts a western LA landfall.
Track Forecast for Ike - third paragraph (Jeff Masters' blog)
As Ike moves approaches within 300 miles of the Louisiana coast on Friday, there will be another trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm to the north. The GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Ike northwards into central or western Louisiana. The UKMET and ECMWF models disagree, and think high pressure will dominate enough to force Ike westwards into Texas, between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana border. These two models have been trending too far south with Ike so far, so I would lean towards a landfall in western Louisiana at this point.